Disaster Displacement Modeler

Terms of Reference

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre

(ICPAC)

Project Name:
Human Mobility in the Context of Disasters and

Climate Change in the IGAD Region (MoDiaC)

Project ID Number:
_FA_IGAD.

Project Implementation Unit:
IGAD Disaster Risk Management

Programme

Terms of Reference

for

Consulting Services to Assist ICPAC with Displacement Data

Modeling

Client

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

Ngong Town Kibiko A Road, Near KIHBT

P.O.Box , Nairobi, Kenya

Tel:

1. Introduction

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is one of the Regional

Economic Communities (RECs) of the African Union Commission. Established in 1986

as the Intergovernmental Authority on Drought and Development (IGADD) to coordinate

the member states' efforts in combating drought and desertification. In 1996, IGAD was

revitalized, expanding its mandate and renamed Intergovernmental Authority on

Development (IGAD). IGAD has various divisions and specialized institutions including

the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) which provides climate

services and applications, including disaster risk management (DRM).

The Mobility, Disasters and Climate Change Project (MoDiaC) aims to enhance regional

cooperation and strengthen the technical and institutional capacities of IGAD and its

member states in addressing disaster and climate-induced displacements. The project

focuses on developing sustainable, data-driven solutions for managing climate and

disaster-induced human mobility through improved early warning systems, risk modeling,

and policy frameworks.

To support these efforts, ICPAC is recruiting a Senior displacement Data Modeler to

support the development, integration, and application of disaster displacement risk

models within the East Africa Hazards watch system. This role will enhance data quality,

sustainability, and usability for decision-makers and policymakers in the IGAD region.

2. Objective of the Assignment

The goal of these consulting services is to assist the MoDiaC project in developing

displacement risk models and integrating them into ICPAC's Hazard Watch. This includes

ensuring the integration of climate, environmental, and disaster data to support

displacement risk assessment, monitoring, forecasting, and the implementation of

anticipatory actions.

3. Scope of services and specific tasks

3.1- Scope of services
The consultant will develop displacement risk models and integrate them into ICPAC's

Hazard Watch, including climate, environmental, and disaster data to support risk

assessment and anticipatory actions.

3.2.
Specific Tasks

The consultant will be responsible for undertaking the following tasks:

2.1. Develop, enhance, and operationalize displacement risk models to support early

warning and anticipatory action for disaster and climate-induced displacement.

2.2 support the collection, aggregation, and analysis of disaster displacement data in the

IGAD region.

2.3. Ensure integration of displacement risk data within the East Africa Hazards Watch

system and IGAD Geoportal.

2.4. Support the development of disaster displacement forecasting methodologies that

combine climate, socio-economic, and environmental factors to predict human mobility

trends.

2.5. Assist in model simulations and automate data processing to ensure efficient and

real-time analysis of displacement scenarios.

2.6. Engage with policymakers, partner organizations, and researchers to ensure the

usability and effectiveness of displacement models for decision-making processes.

2.7. collaborate with developers, geospatial analysts, and climate scientists, and improve

modeling systems and visualization techniques.

2.8. Provide technical guidance and capacity building to IGAD member states on

integrating displacement risk assessments into national and regional policies.

2.9. Enhance data dissemination methods to ensure early warning information is

delivered to relevant stakeholders on time.

2.10. Develop, Integrate, and automate existing drought and flood displacement models

within the ICPAC Hazard Watch portal.

2.11. Ensure the timely and accurate transfer of displacement data from partner agencies

to the ICPAC's systems.

2.12. Explore and apply advanced technologies and methodologies to enhance disaster

displacement projections.4.
Duration and Location of the assignment

The assignment should be completed within six
(6) calendar
months
from the start date

of the contract, with the possibility of extension based on performance and funding

availability.

The consultant will work and report from the ICPAC office in Kenya.

5.
Results and Deliverables

The expected deliverables for the consultant include the following key outputs aimed at

developing displacement risk models and integrating them into ICPAC's Hazard Watch.

Deliverables and Reporting Schedule (Six Months)

Deliverables/Report

Timeline after

contract start

(calendar

days)

Format & Submission

Inception Report
: Work plan,

methodology, and timeline for reviewing

and operationalizing displacement risk

models

14

One electronic copy to

supervisor; additional

copies to Head of DRM

Programme and ICPAC

Director

Model Review & Selection Report
:

Assessment of existing displacement risk

models and selection of those most

suitable for the IGAD region (drought,

flood, cyclone, etc.)

30

One electronic copy;

technical presentation to

DRM Unit

Draft Forecasting Report
: Selected

models integrated into ICPAC Hazard

Watch and
producing initial

displacement forecasts
(simulations,

scenario runs)

45

One electronic copy;

presentation at validation

workshop

Operational Forecast Progress Report
:

Documentation of model runs, automated

forecasts, and early warning dissemination

to stakeholders

46

One electronic copy; short

presentation in DRM

coordination meeting

Final Forecasting & Recommendations

Report
: Refined, validated

models
generating regular displacement

forecasts
, with policy recommendations

and sustainability plan

45

One electronic copy to

supervisor; additional

copies to ICPAC Director

and MoDiaC Coordinator;

presentation at final

workshop6.
Required Qualifications & Experience

Education
:

● Master's or PhD in Data Science, Spatial Modelling, Climate Science,

Environmental Studies, Migration Studies, or a related field.

● At least 7 years of experience in environmental system modeling, data analysis

related to displacement and migration, climate-related hazard monitoring,

forecasting, and disaster displacement risk assessment

● Strong knowledge of human mobility, anticipatory action, and climate change-

related aspects.

● Proven experience in displacement risk assessment, climate migration modeling,

or early warning systems development.

Technical qualifications:

● Strong knowledge of statistical modeling, predictive analytics, and machine

learning techniques for human mobility forecasting.

● Extensive experience in developing and applying disaster displacement risk

models.

● Experience working with geospatial data, climate models, and socio-economic

datasets.

● Proficiency in programming languages for data modeling and analysis such as

Python, R, or MATLAB.

● Extensive experience with GIS systems (e.g., QGIS, ArcGIS) and remote sensing

tools for spatial analysis.

● Experience in interacting with OGC geospatial frameworks, open data standards,

and data interoperability techniques.

● Ability to translate complex model outputs into decision-support tools for

policymakers.

● Knowledge of early warning systems, disaster risk reduction (DRR), disaster

displacement, and anticipatory action frameworks.7.
Core competencies

● Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.

● Excellent communication and report-writing abilities.

● Ability to work in interdisciplinary teams and engage with diverse stakeholders.

● Adaptability, continuous learning and knowledge sharing

8.
Reporting and Supervision

The consultant will be under the overall supervision of the Director of the IGAD Climate

Predictions and Applications Centre. Technical reporting will be to the Programme

Coordinator of the IGAD Disaster Risk Management program at ICPAC, and the Project

Thematic Lead. The consultant will work closely with the ICPAC technical team,

including climate scientists and geospatial analysts.